Four-Year AV of a Drafted NFL Player

Werlindo Mangrobang
May 2018

The Use Case

  • National Football League teams (American Football :D ) have an annual draft of college players.
  • Each team has by default a set amount of draft picks, which can increase and decrease.
    • Trades between teams
    • League action (E.g. team may be compensated with an extra pick, or penalized a pick, etc.)
  • How can teams maximize the value they get out of their draft picks?

Example - Seattle Seahawks

  • The Seattle Seahawks didn't have picks in Round 2 or 3 before the start of the 2018 NFL Draft.
  • Thus it was especially important for them to extract maximum “value” from those picks.

What are some variable that impact value?

Countless! But we'll focus on a few that were likely obvious to you:

  • Round - There are 7 rounds of draft picks
  • Position - The player's position on the playing field
  • Age - How old at time of draft
  • College/University - What school the player played at

We built an app that estimates the first four years of Approximate Value of a drafted player.

Approximate Value Predictor for Drafted Player

As an example, here are the estimated 4-Year AVs of the Seahawks' 2018 draft class.

The total estimated 4-Year AV is 122.7.

Go Hawks.

Shiny App Code (in R):
User Interface (ui.R) and Logic (server.R)